Summary of The GW28 Preview

Fellow FPL Manager,

Today’s email summarizes The GW28 Preview Thread, answering the key questions going into the gameweek.

Don’t forget to vote in the captain poll at the end of the email. It’s finally a GW that Haaland is NOT the standout captain pick. For those with a TC chip left, this might be a huge opportunity. Excited to share results of this captain poll next GW.

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Q) Who are the best Bournemouth players to buy? Is it worth selling a City defender or midfielder for a Bournemouth mid?

The optimal 3 from Bournemouth are Solanke, Neto and Zabarnyi.

Solanke picks himself.

Bournemouth have a 62% chance of keeping at least 1 clean sheet in the double. Worth owning at least 1 Bournemouth defender/GK.

Neto is the best pick from the defence. He has the potential to accumulate save and bonus points, haul potential.

Zabarnyi has played every minute this season and is my preference from the Bournemouth defenders. 

It is worth selling City defenders this week. Lots of rotation risk and no double gameweek. This also frees up cash.

None of the Bournemouth midfielders stand out in terms of expected minutes or underlying data. Not worth selling Foden for a Bournemouth mid, however, selling KDB for a Bournemouth mid could be worth a punt as it makes getting Salah later on easier.

Q) Haaland to Morris worth it if not Free Hitting in 29? Who are the best Luton players to own?

While it might sound crazy, there is merit to sell Haaland for Morris this week if you are not Free Hitting in GW29.

Morris has 3 fixtures in the next 2 GWs compared to Haaland’s 1 fixture against Liverpool. 2 extra fixtures.

City play Liverpool in GW28, blank in GW29, and play Arsenal in GW30. Solanke is the captain pick this week (incredible DGW fixtures) and Spurs play Luton in GW30 so Haaland might not be the optimal captain pick.

If you do sell Haaland, you can Wildcard him back in GW31.

Kaminski and Doughty are the other Luton players to own if you are not FHing in GW29.

Both have the 2 extra fixtures and Doughty ranks 4th for expected assists among defenders this season while Kaminski has the tendency to rack up plenty of saves.

Q) How to navigate GW29 – with or without the Free Hit? Is it fine committing to a FH29 or is it best used later in the season?

GW29 will most likely require a chip (either WC28 or FH29). However, there is no “optimal” strategy that all teams can follow.

Option 1: FH29

• A very conservative estimate that you will likely gain at least 10 points by fielding extra players and avoiding hits.

• Further gain will be made in the transfers leading up to GW29. Attacking GW28 by loading up on Bournemouth for their double GW despite their blank in GW29.

• You don’t have to transfer in GW29 players who are unnecessary for the long term.

Option 2: WC GW28

• Would help you set up for double GW28 and blank GW29 without needing to FH in GW29.

• Great on paper as it kills 2 birds with 1 stone. However, the early WC is entirely dependent on the doubles landing as projected (they don’t always land as projected). Risky option to plan for unconfirmed doubles.

The early WC might cause challenges to plan for Bench Boost in GW37.

Q) Must haves on GW28 Wildcard assuming no FH in 29?

3x Spurs, 3x Bournemouth, 3x Luton and critical single GW picks Bowen and Watkins.

IF playing a wildcard, this structure would help you attack GW28 and ensure you have enough cover for blank GW29.

Q) Do we need a Salah plan in GW30/31?

Need to assess Salah’s fitness for the next few weeks before having a plan to buy him in GW31.

This has been the first time in a while where Salah has had a proper injury so his minutes could potentially be managed.

Salah is not a necessity in GW30 as he is not the optimal captain pick. Spurs play Luton in GW30 at home.

If he is fully fit, it might make sense to buy him in GW31 when Liverpool play Sheffield at home but this is also a mid-week game and could have rotation.

It’s best to remain flexible and to buy him in GW31 if needed. Let’s wait and see.

Q) Is it worth triple captaining Solanke?

Yes. It is worth triple captaining Solanke.

You won’t get a better set of fixtures this season. A double GW against Sheffield and Luton at home. As good as it gets for a 90 min penalty taking talisman.

Q) Is it fine to commit to using a Wildcard in 28 followed by a Free Hit in GW29?

It is probably too early to commit to using a WC in GW28 followed by a FH in GW29. There are merits to use both chips immediately but the risk is likely too great.

It’s important to keep one of these chips for the longer term. We will have a lot more clarity on how the doubles in GW34/37 will look before the GW30 deadline.

The short term gain of using both immediately likely won’t outweigh the risks of having little to fall back on if any Cup upsets occur.

If you found this valuable, I would really appreciate you sharing it with friends.

P.S. Looking for other fun football games? Check out OptaMax and Opta5. Free to play with prize money to be won. FPL players will love them.

Best of luck in GW28,

Bakar