Summary of The GW38 Preview

Fellow FPL Manager,

Today’s email summarizes The GW38 Preview Thread, answering the key questions going into the final gameweek of the season.

Before we dive into this week’s summary, I want to say a big thank you for subscribing to my newsletter and engaging with my content ❤️. I am grateful for your support and I’m excited to continue creating FPL content across different mediums.

A small ask for you: as we end this season, I will start planning my content for next season and would love your input through this survey. It will help me create content that’s most valuable for you:

Q) How to approach transfers this week?

The best strategy is to address the weakest links in attack in your team and remove them with more explosive options. Go with your gut.

Historically, GW38 has been high scoring. The trend will likely continue.

The weakest links in most template teams are Newcastle and Man Utd attackers. Can be replaced with attackers from Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, and even Palace.

Both Isak and Gordan are sellable as they play Brentford, who are 2nd best for xG conceded in the last 6 fixtures.

Q) What is the best way to defend a lead?

Play as template as it gets to defend a lead.

If you are looking to defend a lead, there is no reason to bet against highly owned players who could hurt your rank. The template is very strong.

Do NOT look at rivals chasing you and make decisions according to their team. Play as you normally would to defend a lead.

Q) How much to attack if chasing a deficit of 10 points or below?

A 10 point margin or fewer points can easily be made up through 2-3 differentials.

Don’t be different for the sake of being different with a narrow gap. Make educated gambles. 2-3 differentials (more on this below).

Q) What is the best way to overcome a deficit of over 10 points?

Invest in low owned differentials if chasing a deficit of > 10 points. If the deficit is too huge, ideally captain a player that your rival does not own.

If you're chasing a sizable lead, there is no better differential to pick than Mohamed Salah. It is simply the best opportunity available.

Q) Saka or Salah – if picking one?

I prefer Salah to Saka in isolation. However, if you are not captaining Salah it might be worth getting Saka and using the extra funds to get another player in your starting XI.

Q) Who are the best differentials to pick, fixture by fixture?

• ARS V EVE: Havertz

• BRE V NEW: Toney

• BRI V MUN: Joao Pedro

• CRY V AVL: Eze

• LIV V AVL: Salah, Trent

• CITY V WHM: KDB

• SHU V TOT: Johnson

• BUR V NFO: - CHE V BOU: - LUT V FUL: -

Q) Best Ederson replacement?

Ortega is the best like-for-like Ederson replacement. Raya also an alternative.

City have close to a 50% chance of a clean sheet.

If you don’t own Gvardiol, buying Ortega only exposes you to Gvardiol's attacking threat while you would be exposed to Man City's potential clean sheet too without Ortega.

Raya is also a good Ederson replacement, but ideally you want to use the 3rd Arsenal slot on an attacker.

Q) Is it worth using two free transfers to sell Ederson in order to buy Gvardiol this week?

Not worth using 2 FTs to sell Ederson in order to get Gvardiol.

Hard to rationalize using 2 transfers on the defence when I expect goals to flow this week.

Q) Keep Heung Min Son despite his lack of form?

Keep Son.

The Sheffield vs. Spurs game will likely be high scoring.

Q) Are hits worth it considering it is the final GW of the season?

A hit is only justifiable if there's news of one of your starting assets being benched.

The later it gets in the season, the lesser the chance of a hit paying off. We are as late as we’ll get into the season - better to avoid hits.

Q) Should we be worried about potential rotation in GW38?

No major concerns about rotation at this point. However, wait for team leaks before making any transfers.

Most popular assets are from Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham - teams which either have something to play for or have little option to rotate with the injuries in their squads.

Q) Best captain?

Haaland.

The favourite to return anytime this week. City are going for the title and are expected to score the most goals this week.

Q) Keep or sell Maddison?

Keep Maddison.

He should be involved in the (expected) high scoring game against Sheffield. If you’ve kept him this far, might as well roll the dice once again.

Q) Best Free Hit draft for GW38?

GK: Raya (EVE)

Def: Gabriel (EVE) Alexander-Arnold (WOL) Gvardiol (WHM)

Mid: Salah (WOL) Palmer (BOU) Saka (EVE) Son (shu) Johnson (shu)

Fwd: Haaland (WHM) Joao Pedro (MUN)

If you found this valuable, I would really appreciate you sharing it with friends.

P.S. Looking for other fun football games? Check out OptaMax and Opta5. Free to play with prize money to be won. FPL players will love them.

See you next season,

Bakar